Arnell NW. Assessing the impacts of global warming on snowpack in the Washington Cascades. Available online http://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/objects/issw-2000-178-183.pdf. You can jump to a separate table for each region of the state: Northwestern, Southwestern, South - Central and Eastern Montana. However, it is also important to consider patterns of annual streamflow (or annual water supply), which is the total amount of runoff generated by a given watershed throughout an entire year. The bottom and top of the box represent the 25th and 75th percentiles (or first and third quartiles), respectively, of model projections. At local scales and over shorter periods, annual streamflow responds to seasonal changes in climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation) and related processes such as evapotranspiration. Severe and widespread flooding impacting wide geographic area, Record statewide snowpack, Intense rain and rapid snowmelt runoff. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79:231–41. The reported Lake Ontario water temperature is taken at the Monroe County Water Treatment Plant near Greece, N.Y. Tesemma ZK, Wei Y, Peel MC, Western AW. 2014); yet the effects will likely be location- and event-specific and therefore difficult to predict (Cohen et al. Our analysis focuses on relative changes in flow, rather than absolute streamflow values. Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Changes in temperature near the Earth’s surface will have large effects on how water enters Montana (e.g., as rain or snow), how it is distributed among the major storage pools, and how it moves or changes from one component of the water cycle to another. 2004; Bales et al. Boston. DeBeer CM, Pomeroy JW. 2005). Some water temperatures are exclusive to Angler Spy, others are sourced from public sources such as USGS, NOAA or NDBC. However, projections for these regions that incorporate other changes in climate (such as temperature and evapotranspiration) predict increasing drought frequency in the latter half of the 21st century (Strzepek et al. Climate factors associated with naturalized streamflow in four Montana river basins. The focal areas discussed in the remainder of this chapter are: Glaciers are slowly moving masses of ice formed by the accumulation and compaction of snow. 1998. 2008; Leppi et al. [IPCC] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Observed trends in total annual streamflow, Luce and Holden (2009) reported declines in annual streamflow during the driest years (i.e., lowest 25, Factors that influence total annual streamflow. Thus, understanding relationships between climate and different types of groundwater resources is important for maintaining Montana’s water security. 2003. Daymet is produced by the Oak Ridge National Laboratories from methods originally developed at the University of Montana. Projected changes in snowfall extremes and interannual variability of snowfall in the western United States. For this assessment, we focus on important factors, described below, that affect the natural variability of persistent drought in Montana, as well as potential shifts in drought occurrence as a result of a changing climate. 2006), a trend that is expected to continue under future climate conditions (Barnett et al. Yellowstone River basin, water plan 2014. Indeed, much of Montana’s water is already fully allocated to various uses (Table 3-1) (Arnell 1999; VörÖsmarty et al. The result is a net loss of ice over time (Hall and Fagre 2003; Pederson et al. 2011. Rising temperatures will also lead to a longer growing season, in turn increasing evapotranspiration and further reducing recharge (Meixner et al. Montana: US Bureau of Reclamation. Available online http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2008JCLI2405.1. 128 p. [NRCS] Natural Resources Conservation Service. Denver CO: Bureau of Reclamation, Policy and Administration. In: Wilhite DA, editor. Climate extremes: challenges in estimating and understanding recent changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate and weather events [chapter]. Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate and hydrology projections: release of hydrology projections, comparison with preceding information, and summary of user needs. 2007. Science 333(6040):332-5. Udall B. Lukas J, Barsugli J, Doesken N, Rangwala I, Wolter K. 2014. Those impacts must be included in future efforts to assess drought risk, manage water use and supply, and build resilience to climate change. To help advance this important knowledge gap, the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation is partnering with the US Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to conduct a Basin Study of the Missouri River watershed from the headwaters to Fort Peck Reservoir, including the Musselshell River basin (USBR 2014b). 2016), and regional climate models also consistently predict increases in extreme precipitation in the northwestern US. Sidebar text and figure contributed by Daniel J. Isaak, US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States. In Montana, seasonal drought is most common and of greatest concern during the warm growing season in summer and early fall. On average, the weather during the summer is warm and dry, with … Yet warming is also likely to increase the amount of winter and spring precipitation that falls as rain (particularly in rain-snow transition zones), which will accelerate snowmelt and could increase flood risk, depending on antecedent snowpack, soil moisture, and other conditions. 2014b. Average temperatures for July at cities, towns, parks and lakes throughout Montana are listed below in degrees Fahrenheit and Celsius. Ground water information center [website]. Available online http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/narratives/montana/. 191 p. Available online, [MT DNRC] Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. Literature synthesis on climate change implications for water and environmental resources. Hydrological Processes 23(18):2584-99. Overview; Road; UV index; Wind; Water temperatures; Florida; California; Gulf of Mexico Ice jam database [website]. 2004; Cook et al. Rising temperatures will exacerbate persistent drought periods that are a natural part of Montana’s climate. In: Edenhofer O, Pichs-Madruga R, Sokona Y, Farahani E, Kadner S, Seyboth K, Adler A, Baum I, Brunner S, Eickemeier P, Kriemann B, Savolainen J, Schlömer S, von Stechow C, Zwickel T, Minx JC, editors. Thus, surface water contributions and annual flow in a particular watershed may increase, even as recharge and baseflow contributions to streamflow decline. 2010). 2014. Climate Dynamics 38(9-10):1885-99. Snowmelt-dominated hydrograph.—The vast majority of rivers in western and central Montana are classified as snowmelt dominated. Water is the lifeblood of Montana. Available online, Cook BI, Smerdon JE, Seager R, Coats S. 2014. Here, water levels peak close to when streamflow peaks, and then gradually fall back to a base level. Projections of statewide warming into the future (see Climate chapter) will advance snowmelt to earlier dates. However, the models agree far less about streamflow patterns during the rest of the year (Figure 3-12), with some projecting increases in streamflow in summer and fall, while others project reduced streamflow during these months. Drought management—streamflow [website]. The cold-water climate shield: delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st century. Climate warming in western North America: evidence and environmental effects. doi:10.1029/2011WR010630. In Wagner FH, editor. On decadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large-scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter) (Pederson et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113(36):10019-24. 2014). Overcast throughout the day. Repeat photographs of Boulder Glacier in Glacier National Park. This chapter synthesizes scientific information on how climate change is influencing the supply and distribution of water in Montana. Although the aquifer can be as much as 2000 ft (600 m) below the land surface, it provides water for domestic and livestock watering purposes, as well as municipal water for the towns of Baker, Circle, Lambert, and Richey. Winter and spring precipitation, coupled with seasonal patterns of solar radiation, heavily influence streamflow in these rivers. In regions such as these, the projected increase in temperatures will result in reduced winter snowpack and a higher-elevation snowline (Regonda et al. Roughly 100 Snow Course survey locations.—First established in Montana in the 1920s-1960s, Snow Course data consist of hand-collected snowpack measurements. Such patterns in annual streamflow, however, are often hidden for rivers that are highly regulated by dams or large irrigation withdrawals (e.g., the Marias River below Tiber Reservoir) (MT DNRC 2014c). Among other factors, complexity results from uncertainty in how plants will respond to elevated greenhouse gases and changes in water availability, as shown below. 2014. Climate change in Colorado: a synthesis to support water resources management and adaptation. 2007; Gillian et al. Montana State Weather. Rising temperatures will reduce accumulation of snowpack, shift historical patterns of streamflow in Montana, and likely result in additional stress on Montana’s water supply, particularly during the summer and early fall. Groundwater demand will likely increase as increasing temperatures and changing seasonal availability of traditional surface water sources (i.e., dry stock water ponds or failure of canal systems to deliver timely water) force water users to seek alternatives. Journal of Climate 19(18):4545-59. The hydrograph from observation well 1846 near Terry shows declining water levels of about 25 ft (7.6 m) during the past 33 yr (inset of Figure 3-21). Journal of Climate 18(21):4545-61. Evidence for declining summer flows across much of the West comes from large-scale studies in the Sierra Nevada; the Columbia, Colorado (Das et al. In contrast, La Niña episodes typically result in below-average temperatures, above-average precipitation, and above-average snowpack. APRIL 1 SWE projections for three snowmelt-dominated basins in Montana under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (2040-2069 and 2070-2099). 2009; Mote and Sharp 2016). 13.74 inches: How Many Rainy Days a year are there in Montana? Separate studies have suggested that these recent declines in snowpack can be directly attributed to elevated greenhouse gas emissions and associated warming (Barnett et al. In Montana’s rural areas, groundwater supplies stock, ranch, and domestic needs. These regions have experienced an increase in precipitation falling as rain instead of snow since the 1950s (Knowles et al. We depend on an adequate supply of clean water for nearly every aspect of our lives, including food production, hydroelectric power, domestic and industrial uses, and sustaining our treasured natural ecosystems. Pederson et al. 1999. Les données climatiques pour les villes du monde entier Sélectionnez un continent Flash flooding events typically occur with little warning, are difficult to predict, and are caused by a variety of climate and human-related factors. Rood SB, Foster SG, Hillman EJ, Luek A, Zanewich KP. Other studies have similarly described the decline of glaciers and snowfields in the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest (e.g., Mote et al. A key question is whether annual streamflows have changed over time in Montana and, if so, why. Tue. Most spring floods are caused by rapid snowmelt, particularly during rain-on-snow events in which rain infiltrates and degrades the existing snowpack. National Agricultural Statistics Service [website]. Away from the mountains, hundreds of feet of non-aquifer, impermeable shale formations separate the Madison Limestone from the surface. 20 Yellowstone at Corwin Spring is not one of our focal rivers, but it is included here to show additional variation in drivers of annual flow. 2013; Rood et al. Dettinger MD, Cayan DR. 1995. 2016. 167 p. Available online, [MT DNRC] Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. 2004). Both empirical studies and model projections demonstrate that snowpack in the Northern Rockies and inland Pacific Northwest is more vulnerable to warming than some other regions in the West. Some irrigation water will directly support plant growth and some will trickle back into groundwater aquifers. SECURE Water Act Section 9503(c)—Reclamation climate change and water 2016: prepared for United States Congress. Montana’s aquifers are closely tied to the geology of the state’s two prominent geographic regions (Figure 3-16): Each geographic region has a unique climate, geology, and geologic history; these, in turn, have created the different hydrogeologic settings and determine the location and size of groundwater. Mountains west of the Continental Divide are generally situated at lower elevations than those east of the Continental Divide, yet the western mountains still receive more snowfall on average each year (Figure 3-2). 2009; Pederson et al. 2016). Proceedings of the international snow science workshop; 2000 Oct 2-6; Big Sky MT. For example, hydrologic models are linked to the water cycle and climate-related changes in certain elements of the water cycle, such as evapotranspiration, can be particularly difficult to quantify. This website uses cookies. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/mt/nwis/current? Average annual snowfall varies considerably throughout the state, from roughly 20 inches (0.5 m) in the plains of northeastern Montana, to over 400 inches (10.1 m) in several mountain locations in the west (WRCC undated). Jackson ST, Betancourt JL, Booth RK, Gray ST. 2009. Available online http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/stat.... Accessed 2017 May 8. We present factors that influence long-term persistent drought, as well as seasonal low flows in summer months; and we explore how drought risk might change in the future. 2013; Sheffield et al. Montana flood history from 1908-2011 from the National Water Summary and recent observations (Paulson et al. As discussed in the Climate chapter, large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns connected to changes in sea-surface temperatures strongly influence natural variations in precipitation and temperature (e.g., Cayan et al. Water supply and assessing the risk of drought ( Cook et al ( USGS 2016.... 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